Is COVID-19 over?
No. OK, so when will it end? A long time. “Thats helpful myHSN, thanks! Ed.”)
Spanish Flu, another similar viral pandemic lasted over two years (February 1918 – April 1920), so COVID-19 is ‘beating that’.
Case numbers are still high, and hospital cases are rising again. In other words .. ‘it aint over’. So what is happening? Lets think about disease in general.
Acute
Doctors often categorise medical conditions as ‘acute’, ‘subacute’, or ‘chronic’. A patient with crushing chest pain and an abnormal ECG is experiencing an acute (i.e. short-term) emergency. This means that, within minutes, they need a specific series of drugs and a team of medical professionals to deal with the heart (or severe angina) attack.
Chronic
Another patient may feel his chest tighten when he walks up stairs, but the discomfort fades when he rests, and it’s been this way for years. This is ‘chronic angina’. Chronic means long-term. It’s serious and needs medical attention, but can usually be managed with medication – and not necessarily today. This month is fine.
Subacute
A ‘subacute condition’ is somewhere in between. For example, last month, a woman could climb three flights; last week, only two; and this week one, only one. This is mild heart failure. Subacute illnesses like this, are hazardous in their own way and need attention – ideally this week. They can be improved if treated appropriately. But they may be difficult to diagnose; and, if you ignore or mismanage them, they can spiral out of control.
What stage is COVID-19 in?
This period is the ‘subacute phase of the pandemic’. COVID-19 is no longer an acute emergency, but it’s not yet clear how and when it will become an chronic (‘endemic’) disease, that we are ready to live with. Public weariness with lockdowns and masks, with highly transmissible milder variants – that evade some of our immunity – may condemn us to intermittent surges long into the future.
But yes, we are past the worst. And the vast majority of severe illness should be fully preventable. We’ll probably wear masks in some places, with regular boosters, for many years. It’s not the end of the world. It should not significantly affect the lives of most of us, most of the time (unless a new highly infectious and lethal variant arises).
Conclusion
The end of COVID-19 will not be a clinical or medical feat, but a public health one. It will be when we, as a society, find the balance of disease vs lifestyle and economy, that we are happy to live with.
Other resources
There is more on myHSN on which COVID-19 test to have it you need one, and here on whether you should self-isolate.
